Sanctions Almost Certainly, Highly Likely, Probably Hurt Russian Military Exports

Sanctions “A̶l̶m̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶C̶e̶r̶t̶a̶i̶n̶l̶y̶“, “H̶i̶g̶h̶l̶y̶ ̶L̶i̶k̶e̶l̶y̶,“ “Probably“ Hurt Russian Military Exports An article today in Ukrainska Pravda summarizes claims made by “British intelligence officials.“ The source for this is an image of an “Update on Ukraine” for 1 April, 2022 posted on X. Though the post doesn’t link to any report, there is a link to a British Intelligence measurement tool, the Probability Yardstick. The words and phrases I quote throughout this article are directly from this yardstick. Questions immediately arise about the quality of data, how is it is quantified, and reliability of sources. A major issues in these updates has been their perpetual reliance on Ukrainian officials. Data provided by these sources is “highly likely” to be unreliable. There are a couple of other things to note on the yard stick. Firstly, is that the words “likely” and “probably” are used interchangeably for the largest measurement of 55 to 75. There is a “realistic possibi... Source: Slavyangrad