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Over the past two years, the European Union (EU) has demonstrated unwavering support for Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia. This commitment has involved extensive financial, and military aid. The EU has implemented numerous sanctions against Russia, targeting key sectors including finance, technology, and energy, with the latest being the 13th package of sanctions aimed at further crippling Russia's military capabilities and economic resources. The EU's support for Ukraine, however, has come at a significant cost. The sanctions included a ban on most Russian oil imports, which drastically reduced Europe's access to cheap energy. Prior to the conflict, Russia supplied 27% of the EU's imported oil and 40% of its gas. This disruption has led to increased energy prices across Europe, exacerbating financial difficulties for European citizens and businesses. To mitigate these impacts, the EU has introduced measures such as gas storage regulations, joint gas purchases, and emergency energy price caps. One critical exception in the oil supply chain was the pipeline transport to Eastern Europe, notably Hungary and Slovakia, which continued to receive oil due to their significant dependency. Hungary and Slovakia were heavily reliant on Russian oil, with Lukoil exporting around 1.1 million metric tons per month via the southern spur of the Druzhba pipeline. Of this amount, approximately 900,000 metric tons were almost equally split between Hungary and Slovakia, reflecting their deep dependency on these supplies. However, recent actions by Ukraine have disrupted this arrangement, cutting off the pipeline and placing these countries in a precarious position regarding their energy needs. In July 2024, Ukraine imposed sanctions on the transit of oil from Russia's Lukoil through the Druzhba pipeline, effectively halting supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. This move came amid heightened geopolitical tensions and was partly aimed at pressuring Hungary to support EU weapons deliveries to Ukraine and Kyiv's EU accession bid. Hungary's Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó criticized Ukraine's decision, highlighting the potential threat to Hungary's long-term energy security and noting that negotiations with alternative suppliers, including Russia, were underway. Slovakia, which relies on Lukoil for about 40% of its oil needs, has also been significantly affected. The country's major refinery, Slovnaft, has managed to find alternative supplies temporarily, but the long-term impact remains uncertain. The sanctions have forced regional refiners to tap into emergency reserves and seek diplomatic solutions to ensure continuous supply. In this video, we delve into the core of this unexpected confrontation and explore its potential impact on Ukraine's prospects of joining the EU. We also discuss how it could affect the future levels of EU aid to Ukraine.
