Guest
Significant changes in world politics are coming in 2025. The new US administration will differ from Biden’s. It’s not clear if this will lead to a reduction in armed conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Trump will act much more decisively than Biden, whichever scenario he chooses. In its turn, political contradictions within the EU will reach a new level amid structural economic problems. The leaders of both Russia and Ukraine are well aware of this. The armed conflict is still intense despite the poor weather. The Kyiv regime is losing territory. The Russian army has an undeniable advantage, although it is only making tactical gains. The ‘race against time’ is now a key factor. Kiev and Moscow are preparing for the main strategic battle of the winter campaign of 2025. While the Russians can afford to bet on defeating the AFU in a defensive operation, the Zelensky regime needs only to attack. Kyiv is concentrating its reserves in the north-east to make rapid maneuvers along the eastern front line. According to media reports, the commander of the Joint Forces Forces “North” and the commanders of the 10th and 11th Army Corps of the Ukrainian Army received the decree ordering them to deploy 18 brigades and 1 battalion in the specified areas by December 15. Most of these units have to redeploy to positions in the northeastern part of Ukraine: the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkov and Poltava regions. Some others are taking positions in Kyiv, Zhitomir and Volyn regions. The 115th, 116th, 118th separate motorized brigades and the newly created 117th separate motorized brigade are set to operate in the direction of the Russian regions of Belgorod and Kursk. The 158th, the 32nd and the 162nd separate motorized brigades are deployed in the direction of the Russian region of Bryansk. The total number of these troops is estimated at 30,000 with over one thousand pieces of military equipment. The Russians, for their part, appear to have decided to play strategic defense on this part of the front. Simultaneously, there are signals that Moscow is preparing to launch an offensive towards the city of Kherson, with the crossing of the Dnieper, or towards the city of Zaporozhye. Up to 6,000 troops with 400 pieces of military equipment, supported by significant cannon and rocket artillery, could be involved. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense is continuing its slow but steady advance in the Donbass, in Zaporozhye and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine, and is also pushing the AFU out of the Kursk region of Russia. If Zelensky’s offensive fails, the entire Ukrainian army will collapse. Success, even limited, will allow him to conduct at least another six months of combat operations with active NATO support.
